
Securing the growth momentum would have higher priority than stabilizing the exchange rate.
Bruce Pang
Chief economist, Greater China, JLL
The tone from Monday’s Politburo meeting reinforced market’s expectation that the PBOC will likely cut key interest rates by 40 to 50 basis points to close to 1%, towards the end of 2025, said Ju Wang, head of Greater China FX & rates strategy at BNP Paribas said in a note on Tuesday.
Bets on further rate cuts have fueled a prolonged rally in Chinese government bonds, pushing the 10-year benchmark yield to record lows on Tuesday.
While monetary easing might put depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, “securing the [economic] growth momentum would have higher priority than stabilizing the exchange rate,” Bruce Pang, chief economist of Greater China at JLL told CNBC.
Pang expects the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio, or RRR, a key lever to adjust liquidity, within a month.
Not a ‘bazooka’
More details on Beijing’s macro policy plans will be revealed at the annual economic work conference, that is reportedly underway and will end Thursday, UBS’ Wang added.
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That said, most of the key policy targets and details of stimulus measures will only be announced at the National People’s Congress next March, she added.
Investors and economists are watching for any concrete policy follow-through, particularly on additional fiscal support and direct consumption incentives.
The stronger language on Monday does not signal that “bazooka-style stimulus will arrive immediately,” Wildau said, who sees the top leaders to roll out new stimulus measures in an “incremental, data-dependent fashion, while keeping some ammunition in reserve” in response to potential U.S. tariffs next year.
Reviving household consumption is a top priority for policymakers, Wang said, forecasting the government to more than double its trade-in program to over 300 billion yuan to incentivize domestic spending.
China in July had announced allocation of 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) in ultra-long special government bonds to support the trade-in and equipment upgrade policy, in a bid to bolster consumer demand.
Beyond the trade-in program, existing fiscal stimulus package has placed little emphasis on boosting consumption, which is key to reflating the economy, Sunny Liu, lead economist at Oxford Economics said in a note on Wednesday, stressing that China will continue to face deflationary pressures in the near term.
CNBC’s
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