elections are inevitable next year, putting the probability at 75%. As it stands, analysts think it’s likely that France’s major political blocs will agree a provisional budget, which simply rolls over the 2024 budget into next year. This will prevent any new year government “shutdown” where France is no longer able to meet its financial obligations. Rolling over the budget might prevent an immediate crisis but it also delays an urgent need to tackle France’s fiscal problems, with the budget deficit already predicted to hit 6.1% of GDP in 2024, and is expected to rise further if measures are not taken to rein in spending.