Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance Sign in Search query Search for news or symbols Yahoo Finance The final Fed meeting of 2024 awaits: What to know this week Josh Schafer Josh Schafer · Reporter Updated Sun, December 15, 2024 at 6:45 PM GMT+6 7 min read In This Article: StockStory Top Pick META -1.66% MSFT -0.51% NVDA -2.25% Tummy Tuck Surgery In Thailand Might Be Cheaper Than You Think Search Ads Ad The stock market rally has stalled as the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year approaches. In the past week, the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) was the only of the three major indexes to post a weekly gain, closing up more than 0.3%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 0.6%, while a decline in healthcare stocks weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which slid nearly 2%. The Dow has now fallen for seven straight sessions, its worst stretch since February 2020. Investors are set to receive a jam-packed week of economic news, highlighted by the Fed's next interest rate decision on Dec. 18. Markets widely expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and investors are likely to focus on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says about the path forward in 2025 during his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Updates on November retail sales, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — and activity in the services and manufacturing sectors are also on the economic calendar. In corporate news, quarterly results from Micron (MU), Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX) and Carnival Corporation (CCL) are expected. SNP - Delayed Quote • USD S&P 500 (^GSPC) Follow 6,051.09 -0.16 (-0.00%) At close: December 13 at 4:48:12 PM EST ^GSPC ^DJI ^IXIC 1D 5D 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 5Y All A cut, then what? Entering Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, markets are pricing in a roughly 97% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, per the CME FedWatch tool. But given recent data that showed the US economy is growing at a solid pace, the labor market isn't rapidly cooling, and inflation's path to the Fed's 2% goal is proving bumpy, many expect the Fed will cut rates by less than initially thought in 2025. Key to watch is the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). That includes its "dot plot," which maps out policymakers' expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future, as well as commentary from Powell during his press conference. Read more: What experts say about the possibility of additional rate cuts When the Fed last issued its dot plot in September, the median forecast was for the fed funds rate to end 2025 in a range of 3.25% to 3.5%. Instead of the four rate cuts in 2024 projected back in September, markets are pricing in just two rate cuts for next year, per Bloomberg data. "We think that the economic forecasts will show better growth and firmer inflation this year and that the median interest rate forecast dots will be revised to show three cuts next year instead of four, as in the September dots," JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli wrote in a note to clients. Bank of America US economist Aditya Bhave wrote in a note to clients that Powell is likely to point to a "slower pace" of cuts during his press conference including a pause in the rate-cutting cycle in January. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell speaks at the DealBook Summit in New York, Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell speaks at the DealBook Summit in New York, Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) · ASSOCIATED PRESS Retail reading Prior to the Fed's decision on Wednesday, officials will get a fresh reading on the state of the consumer with the November retail sales report. Economists estimate retail sales increased 0.5% over the prior month during October. The control group of retail sales — which excludes several volatile categories like gasoline and feeds directly into the gross domestic product (GDP) — is also expected to have risen by 0.4%. Bank of America's US economics team thinks this report will reflect a strong start to the holiday shopping period. "Online retail spending was particularly strong around the Thanksgiving period," the team wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "In fact, holiday spending is running ahead of cumulative 2023 levels despite a delayed Thanksgiving. Hence, we expect a robust retail sales report for Nov, with retail sales ex-autos and the core control category coming in at 0.5% m/m." Weekly calendar Monday Economic data: Empire manufacturing activity, December (5.8 expected, 31.2prior); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, December preliminary (49.7 prior); S&P Global US services PMI, December preliminary (56.1 prior); S&P Global US composite PMI, December preliminary (54.9 prior) Earnings: No notable earnings. Tuesday Economic data: Retail sales month-over-month, November (+0.5% expected, +0.4% prior) Retail sales excluding auto and gas month-over-month, November (+0.5% expected, +0.1% prior); Retail sales control group month-over-month, November (+0.4% expected, -0.1% prior); Industrial production, month-over-month, November (0.2% expected, -0.3% prior); NAHB housing market index, December (46 expected, 46 prior) Earnings: No notable earnings. Wednesday Economic data: Building permits month-over-month, November preliminary (1% expected, -0.4% prior); Housing starts month-over-month, November (2.5% expected, -3.1% prior); FOMC rate decision (4.25% to 4.5% expected, 4.5% to 4.75% prior) Earnings: Birkenstock (BIRK), General Mills (GIS), Lennar (LEN), Micron (MU) Thursday Economic data: GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter, third quarter third estimate, (2.8% expected, 2.8% prior); Core PCE quarter-over-quarter, third quarter third estimate (2.1% prior); Philadelphia business outlook, December (2.2 expected, -5.5 prior); Initial jobless claims, week ending Dec. 14 (242,000 expected); Leading index, November (-0.1% expected, -0.4% prior); Existing home sales month-over-month, November (3.3% expected, 3.4% prior) Earnings: Accenture (ACN), BlackBerry (BB), CarMax (KMX), Conagra (CAG), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FactSet (FDS), FedEx (FDX), Lamb Weston (LW), Nike (NKE)