Trump’s invasion of Greenland would be ‘the shortest war in the world’

The main protector of Greenland against an attack is … the United States.

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Donald Trump, who also floated the idea of the U.S. taking over Canada and the Panama Canal, has long had his eye on Greenland. | Emil Stach/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images
January 10, 2025 4:29 am CET
By Laura Kayali and Hanne Cokelaere

In 1951, the United States signed an agreement with Denmark pledging to protect Greenland from attack. Fast-forward 74 years, and the threat is now coming from America.

This week, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump sent shockwaves across Europe when he refused to rule out using military force to annex the world’s largest island, an autonomous territory of 57,000 people that is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. 

Trump, who also floated the idea of the U.S. taking over Canada and the Panama Canal, has long had his eye on Greenland — a strategically located island rich in minerals and oil.


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Trump’s invasion of Greenland would be ‘the shortest war in the world’

The main protector of Greenland against an attack is … the United States.

Free article usually reserved for subscribers
DENMARK-US-GREENLAND-DIPLOMACY-GOVERNMENT
Donald Trump, who also floated the idea of the U.S. taking over Canada and the Panama Canal, has long had his eye on Greenland. | Emil Stach/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images
January 10, 2025 4:29 am CET
By Laura Kayali and Hanne Cokelaere

In 1951, the United States signed an agreement with Denmark pledging to protect Greenland from attack. Fast-forward 74 years, and the threat is now coming from America.

This week, incoming U.S. President Donald Trump sent shockwaves across Europe when he refused to rule out using military force to annex the world’s largest island, an autonomous territory of 57,000 people that is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. 

Trump, who also floated the idea of the U.S. taking over Canada and the Panama Canal, has long had his eye on Greenland — a strategically located island rich in minerals and oil.

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While there is little question as to which country would win in a fight, Denmark might have a better chance if it turned to the lawyers. Copenhagen could ask them whether the EU is somehow required to defend Greenland; whether it could invoke NATO’s common defense provisions against an attack by the alliance’s own largest member; and what Washington’s obligations are under the 1951 treaty.

The U.S. has — by far — the world’s largest defense budget, spending $948 billion last year. Its armed forces have 1.3 million personnel — some of them currently stationed in Greenland. Denmark, for its part, last year spent $9.9 billion, has only 17,000 soldiers, and most of its heavy land-warfare equipment has been donated to Ukraine.



If Trump did make good on his threat to annex Greenland by force, “that would be the shortest war in the world, there is no defensive capacity in Greenland. The Americans were in charge,” said Ulrik Pram Gad, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies.

Some Danish coastguard ships frequent southeastern Greenland, but the Danish press has reported that the software needed to shoot at targets was never bought and installed, he added. 

Pram Gad said he was perplexed by Trump’s intentions. “Is that bravado? Is that threat diplomacy between allies? We don’t really know, but that’s going to be the mode for the next four years.” 

Top officials, including Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and his outgoing U.S. counterpart Antony Blinken, initially dismissed Trump’s comments.

However, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen organized a meeting with party leaders on Thursday to discuss the issue, while Rasmussen backpedaled on his initial nonchalant reaction. “We are taking this very seriously, but we don’t have any ambition to escalate a war of words with a president that is on the way into the White House,” he said.

Unfit to fight an invasion

Under the 1951 pact, the U.S. accepted the legal obligation to defend against any attack on the massive Arctic island, given the inability of the Danish armed forces to fight off a potential aggressor without help.

“Denmark has been very aware it cannot defend Greenland against anybody on its own,” said Kristian Søby Kristensen, a senior researcher at the University of Copenhagen’s Center for Military Studies. If Trump did try to seize the territory by force, “the question is: Who would [the Americans] be fighting? Their own military? They’re already there,” he added.

The U.S. significantly reduced its military presence on the island after the Cold War ended, but an early warning radar station remains at the Pituffik space base in the northwest of Greenland. It’s a key asset that can spot spacecraft and ballistic missiles, including potential nuclear warheads launched by Moscow.