aimed at reducing the hefty French deficit — will then be forced to tender his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron.
From there, uncertainty reigns. Macron will eventually need to name a new prime minister, after already struggling to make such an appointment in the wake of the snap summer election which delivered the most votes to the left-wing coalition, but did not give any party a majority. Long-time minister Barnier had been seen as a technocratic compromise.
“Once Barnier resigns, Macron will likely ask him to continue as a caretaker. The alternative option of formally renominating Barnier looks unlikely given the manifest lack of a majority,” Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at Teneo, said in a Tuesday note.
This caretaker status could drag on for months, since fresh elections cannot be held until next year, while another possibility is Macron’s resignation triggering presidential elections within 35 days, Nickel said.
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